An economic divergence between US and western Europe?

When we look at economic data, there is an increasing disparity between US and EU (at least its western part). In the United States, Dow Jones index is near record high levels and unemployment rate is the lowest since 1969.

In western Europe, most economies are recording anemic growth and, according to some indicators, the biggest EU economy, Germany, is already in recessing. To be sure, this phenomenon has so far not replicated itself in central Europe, where the stats are more encouraging. But even there, growth seems to be slacking and besides, with the exception of Poland, those states are very export oriented and if German economy dips, so will theirs.

In the past, the two most noteworthy economic crises (those of 1929 and 2008) were sparked by a sudden event in the US. Of course, there were other factors in some crises, such as the oil shocks caused by Israeli-Arab conflicts. But now it seems possible that the impulse to a global slowdown or an outright crisis may come from Europe. Of course, the crises of 1929 and 2008 were a surprise as well.



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